In 2016 the most likely scenario for the raw materials market is that the oil price will range from 30 to 50 dollars per barrel. This is stated in the macroeconomic forecast of the National Rating Agency.
'The key factor in the oil market is oversupply,' – noted in the forecast.
As specified under this scenario, the weakening of the ruble against the dollar could reach up to 25%, the budget deficit – from 2% to 5.5% of GDP, inflation – from 7% to 10%, the key rate would be at 8-10%. GDP growth may reach up to 1%.